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Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) (Paperback, 2007, Random House)

The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we …

Review of 'The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)' on 'LibraryThing'

The author has an annoying persona, but the ideas are very intriguing. He divides phenomena into two classes: mediocristan (where variability is constrained by physical properties, and standard statistics applies) and extremistan (where exteme events can be expected to wildly skew results). Markets and most financial statistics he places in extremistan (although the division seems highly arbitrary). In light of recent economic events, his thinking seems persuasive. But it's hard to see it as a guide to action.